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It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or the reason for the team's broader struggles.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their opening six games, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult query to address. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.

As per Opta, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team which has just won 10 in a row, they seem strangely fragile – yet currently the fine lines are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing the Red Devils.

Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced just inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they must confront as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he resembled during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly back in October, few could imagine the young forward now would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital player for the national team.

This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.